Causal Inference with Modern Machine Learning Methods

Doctoral-level introduction to causal inference at the intersection of machine learning, focusing on theoretical foundations and recent research developments.

Course Description

  • In contemporary causal inference studies, the data are decidedly large-scale, complex, and high-dimensional.

  • Recently, an exciting set of tools at the intersection of causal inference and machine learning has emerged to tackle these types of questions in these settings.

  • The first 2.5 weeks is spent on Rubin’s causl framework and causal ifernce basics at the level of Rubin 2015 book.

  • Then we study recent developments for causal inference using modern machine learning methods. The content will primarily be based on recent research papers.

Learning Objectives

Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able to:

  1. Explain the core concepts and challenges in causal inference under the potential outcomes framework;
  2. Apply the most recent developments of modern statistical/machine learning methods to some core causal inference problems;
  3. Demonstrate and improve the ability to develop and justify the statistical/machine learning methods with mathematical rigor when applying/adapting them to causal inference questions.

Related Posts

Causal Inference Overview

Understanding SUTVA and ignorability, fundamental assumptions in causal inference, what they mean, and what happens when they are violated.

causal-basics

Causal Assumption: SUTVA and Ignorability

Understanding SUTVA and ignorability, fundamental assumptions in causal inference, what they mean, and what happens when they are violated.

causal-basics

Causal Inference vs Causal Estimation

A deep dive into confidence intervals—what they are, how to interpret them, some caveats, and oft-encountered issues in online experimentation.

experimentation ab-testing metrics

Violation of SUTVA in A/B Testing: network interference

A summary of the Lyft Engineering blog post 'Interference Across a Network' detailing how naive A/B testing can bias effect estimates in ridesharing.

experimentation

Switchback Experiments

An overview of switchback (time-split) experiments: what they are, why they are used to solve network interference, and their trade-offs.

experimentation

Synthetic Control and Experimentation Culture

When standard experiments fail: utilizing Synthetic Controls, managing experimentation culture, and understanding various treatment effects.

causal-inference ab-testing experimentation synthetic-control

Case Study: Causal Effect of ETA Reduction

A practical case study on measuring the causal effect of reducing Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) in a ridesharing marketplace.

causal-inference case-study marketplace experimentation

Case Study: Causal Effect of ETA Reduction

A practical case study on measuring the causal effect of reducing Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) in a ridesharing marketplace.

causal-inference case-study marketplace experimentation

Paper review: Statistical Challenges in Online Controlled Experiments

A review of Larsen et al. (2024) on the statistical landscape and challenges of A/B testing in large-scale online environments.

a-b-testing online-experiments sutva sequential-testing

Deriving the IPW Estimator: From One RCT to Infinite RCTs under Unconfoundedness

An intuitive derivation of the Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimator from a single RCT to multiple RCTs and observational data.

ate-estimation ipw

FWL Theorem

Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem

fwl-theorem

Augmented IPW and Double Robustness

AIPW estimator, double robustness, and cross-fitting

causal-inference aipw double-robustness

Lecture 16: Canonical Gradient and Efficient Influence Curve

Notes by Rachael Phillips for PB HLTH 290, Spring 2019

causal-inference asymptotic-efficiency efficiency-theory

Paper review: Improving randomized controlled trial analysis via data-adaptive borrowing

A deep dive into how machine learning and adaptive lasso can enhance RCTs by selectively borrowing information from external controls.

causal-inference medical-statistics adaptive-lasso machine-learning

Case Study: Diagnosing and Addressing a Metric Drop

An end-to-end framework for investigating MAU drops, targeting at-risk users, and making data-driven 'ship' decisions.

a-b-testing case-study product-analytics metrics

Potential Outcome Framework and Matching Estimators

An introduction to the Neyman-Rubin causal model and matching methods

causal-inference matching potential-outcomes

Quick and Dirty Sample Size Calculation

experimentation ab-testing metrics

A/B Testing Metrics

A comprehensive guide to selecting and evaluating metrics in A/B testing and online experimentation.

experimentation

Summary: Challenges in Experimentation (Lyft)

A summary of the Lyft Engineering blog post 'Challenges in Experimentation' by John Kirn.

causal-inference ab-testing experimentation

Paper review: Performance Guarantees for Individualized Treatment Rules

A review of Qian and Murphy (2011) on formulating individualized treatment rules via conditional outcome maximization with performance guarantees.

policy-learning paper-review

Policy Learning

Empirical Welfare Maximization, Policy Evaluation, and Regret Bounds

policy-learning causal-inference optimal-treatment

Paper review: Adjusting for Nonignorable Drop-Out Using Semiparametric Nonresponse Models

A review of Scharfstein, Rotnitzky, and Robins (1999) on handling nonignorable missing data and conducting sensitivity analysis using semiparametric methods.

nonignorable-dropout sensitivity-analysis aipcw

Paper review: A Distributional Approach for Causal Inference Using Propensity Scores

A review of Tan (2006) on estimating average causal effects and improving upon propensity score methods using a distributional approach.

propensity-score causal-inference linear-programming

Paper review: Sensitivity Analysis for Inverse Probability Weighting Estimators via the Percentile Bootstrap

A review of Zhao, Small, and Bhattacharya (2019) on conducting robust sensitivity analysis for IPW estimators using marginal sensitivity models and the percentile bootstrap.

sensitivity-analysis inverse-probability-weighting bootstrap

Paper review: Data Fusion for High-Resolution Estimation

A review of Guan et al. (2026) on fusing unbiased administrative data with biased survey data for high-resolution estimation.

data-fusion high-resolution-estimation sampling-bias

Project Updates